Global Ag News for July 26th

TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 8 *1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $0.31; Soyoil down 0.17.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 22 3/4 in SRW, down 12 1/2 in HRW, down 48 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 3/4; Soybeans down 30 1/2; Soymeal down $1.13; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 1/2 in SRW, down 19 1/4 in HRW, up 25 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 48; Soybeans down 56 3/4; Soymeal down $28.60; Soyoil up 0.30.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 26 yuan ; Soymeal down 51; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 120; Corn up 18 — Malasyian Palm is up 120. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 120 ringgit (+2.81%) at 4391.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. East: Scattered showers north Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 7/23 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 18,000 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 500 soyoil.

There were changes in registrations (-13 Soybeans). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 23 were: SRW Wheat up 3,148 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,985, Corn down 2,916, Soybeans down 2,559, Soymeal down 141, Soyoil down 10,852.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture said exporters sold 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• CORN AUCTION: China’s Sinograin sold 8,207 tonnes of imported genetically modified corn, or 4% of total offer, at an auction of state reserves.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat

U.S. Cattle on Feed Fell to 11.29M Head on July 1

The feedlot herd fell 1.3% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 1%

• Placements onto feedlots down 7.1% y/y to 1.67m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 2.7% to 2.022m head

INDIA IMPORTED 13.3 MLN TONNES OF EDIBLE OIL IN FISCAL YEAR 2020

India imported 13.35 million tonnes of edible oil, a little more than half of its total consumption, in its fiscal year 2020-21, according to government data.

Its domestic production of edible oils for the April-March fiscal year totalled 12.47 million tonnes and consumption was 25.82 million tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Friday. The world’s largest importer of edible oils is working to reduce its dependence on imports under a food security plan.

India imports palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia, while Argentina, Ukraine and Russia are top suppliers of soy oil and sunflower oil. India’s production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is estimated at 36.56 million tonnes. The output includes 13.4 million tonnes of soybean, 10.12 million tonnes of groundnut, and 9.9 million tonnes of rapeseed and mustard.

Ukraine Corn Exports More Than Double in New Season: Ministry

Ukraine’s corn exports have surged 108% y/y to 824k tons during the marketing season that began July 1, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

• Total grain exports increased 49% to 1.7m tons during the same period; includes:
  • 399k tons of wheat, down 3.2% y/y
  • 426k tons of barley, up 42% y/y

Increases in the export’s premiums and the US dollar push up soybean prices in BR

The increase in the export’s premiums, the dollar appreciation, the low inventories at Brazilian processing plants and the high domestic demand are pushing up soybean prices in Brazil. Besides, many Brazilian farmers have already made cash flow, not interested in selling large batches of the product.

Agents consulted by Cepea have reported that some soybean farmers are opting for stocking the product remaining from the 2019/20 season and selling soybean from September onwards. Seasonally, prices are usually higher in the last quarter of the year, due to the low domestic inventories.

According to Cepea collaborators, more than 80% of the 2020/21 crop has been sold in Brazil; and concerning the 2021/22 season, more than 25% has been marketed. According to Imea, in Mato Grosso, 89.95% of the 2020/21 crops and 34.58% of the 2021/22 crops have been traded. In Paraná, 80% of the current crop has been sold, according to Deral/Seab.

Weather concerns agents in Brazil and in the USA, and prices rise

Concerns about the weather in the corn-producing regions in both Brazil and the United States are pushing up corn prices, since the recent frosts and forecasts for a new cold front in Brazil and the dry and hot weather in the USA may reduce the productive potential of corn crops. In this context, Brazilian sellers are not willing to sell the product at lower prices, reducing liquidity in the domestic market.

Besides, in Brazil, corn farmers are focused on the harvesting of the second 2020/21 crop, which is late in all Brazilian regions compared to that in the previous season. Thus, farmers are prioritizing the deliveries of the batches previously purchased, waiting for the harvesting to advance in order to assess possible productivity decreases.

As regards consumers, some of them are opting for waiting for new deliveries and/or higher volumes to be harvested in order to resume closing deals. However, those that do not have corn for the short term are willing to pay higher prices, which sometimes are over 100 BRL per 60-kilo bag.

Soufflet Sees French Wheat Harvest at About 37.5M Tons This Year

The French soft-wheat harvest is estimated at 37.5m-38m tons this year, Jean-Francois Lepy, managing director of Soufflet Negoce, said in an online video posted this week.

• The harvest will allow France to export at least 10m tons, said Lepy, who recorded the video July 12
• FranceAgriMer has estimated sales outside the EU at 10.5m tons in the season that started this month
• Weather will be monitored in the coming weeks, as persistent wetconditions in France could become problematic for grain quality
• Freight costs are also a challenge for trade, with cargoes from the port of Rouen to Algeria at about $35-$40 per ton, versus $15-20 in a typical summer
• China’s pace of buying will be watched with the country already initiating large purchases for the 2021-22 season, but the extent of its long-term demand is unclear

Malaysia’s July 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1,127,146 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments decline 4% m/m from 1,174,450 tons exported during June 1-25, according to AmSpec Agri on Monday.

Malaysia July 1-25 Palm Oil Exports -0.46% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 0.46% m/m during July 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.

Indonesia 1st-Half Biodiesel Consumption 4.3 Million Kiloliters

Indonesia, the world’s biggest oil palm grower, consumed 4.3 million kiloliters of biodiesel in the first half of this year, according to the energy and mineral resources ministry.

• Consumption of the palm-based biodiesel in the January-to-June period accounts for 46.7% of the full-year target of 9.2 million kiloliters, the ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
• Although mobility curbs due to the pandemic have slowed fuel use in the transport and industry sectors, the government is optimistic that biodiesel will meet the consumption target by the end of the year, the government said.
• Indonesia imposes a mandate that requires fuel retailers to use 30% of palm-biofuel blended with 70% of diesel to try to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and support a transition to clean energy.

China’s Henan Says Flooding Causes Crop and Livestock Losses

Flooding in China’s Henan province damaged crops including corn, peanuts and soybeans, and killed more than a million hogs and chickens, according to a local government official on Saturday.

• The floods triggered by heavy rains mostly on July 23-24 hit nearly 10% of the total crop area of the province, Wang Junzhong, a deputy head of the local agriculture bureau, told a press conference
• Flooding killed more than one million hogs and chickens and damaged 1,678 farms, comprising 3.7% of the total in the province

Over 1.10 lakh hectares of crop damaged across Maharashtra due to heavy rains

Flooding caused by torrential rain over the past few days has caused damage to around 1.10 lakh hectares of crop across Maharashtra, according to initial estimates by the State Agriculture Department.

Crops like sugarcane, paddy, soybean, maize and cotton have reported the maximum hit, with the agriculture department fearing further rise in the number of areas affected as reports pour in from various parts of the state.

Over the last few days, parts of the state have reported extremely heavy rains with western Maharashtra districts of Kolhapur, Sangli and parts of Satara reporting massive destruction. Almost all districts of Konkan, along with the district of Parbhani in Marthawada, have also reported heavy losses. In Vidarbha, Akola, Washim and Nagpur districts reported massive losses.

The state has reported over 100 deaths due to landslides triggered by heavy rains in various parts since Thursday. Early estimates showed that around 35,000 hectares of cropped area, mainly sugarcane, has been affected by the rains in Kolhapur. Similarly, 4,500 hectares of area in Sangli and 5,000 hectares in Pune have reported losses. Konkan has seen maximum losses in rice fields with most farm land being under water due to the rainfall.

Monsoon-Sown Crop Area Declines 8.9% in India on Rain Delays

Indian farmers have planted monsoon crops on 72.14 million hectares of land as of July 23, a drop of 8.9% from a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

• Sugar cane area has risen 1.7% to 5.39m hectares so far this year, the ministry’s data showed late Friday
• The area under cotton fell 7.7% to 10.89m hectares

U.S. Beef Production Falls 0.2% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

U.S. federally inspected pork production rises to 489m pounds for the week ending July 24 from 479m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter rises 2.3% in the week to 2.332m head
• Beef production down 0.2% from a week ago to 530m pounds