Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 15 cents and near 12.89. SX is up 16 cents and near 12.86. SMU is near 352.3. BOU is near 59.03. CU is up 2 cents and near 5.33. CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.22. WU is up 9 cents and near 6.50. KWU is up 12 cents and near 6.21. MWU is up 14 cents and near 8.22.
US stocks are unch. US Dollar is lower. Fridays US PCE core price index and best inflation index was lower than expected.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 90 in HRS; Corn is down 23 1/2; Soybeans down 87 1/2; Soymeal down $36.20; Soyoil down 0.40.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 43 yuan ; Soymeal up 30; Soyoil down 36; Palm oil down 2; Corn up 5 — Malasyian Palm is down 12. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 12 ringgit (-0.34%) at 3508 swinging between gains and losses as investors weighed the tropical oil’s supply-demand outlook and fluctuations in rival soybean oil prices.
Weekend rains fell across parts of SC MN, NC IA, MO, WI, IL, N IN and MI. The US Midwest 6 to 10 day weather forecast call for dry weather across US PNW, Canada prairies, N plains and NW Midwest. Scattered rains fall across central Midwest, Heavy rains are forecast for gulf coast and SE.
This could be a big week for especially corn and soybean prices direction. USDA June 30 acreage report and June 1 stocks could either sink prices lower or begin to build a base for US summer weather. Trade expects USDA to show increase in US 2021 corn and soybean acres from their March est and lower US June 1 corn, soybean and wheat stocks than last year.
Private est of US 2020/21 corn carryout ranges from 825 mil bu to 1,040 vs USDA 1,107, soybeans 50-142 vs USDA 135. Same group est US 2021/22 corn carryout from 675-1,536 vs USDA 1,357, soybeans 55-161 vs USDA 155.
World Oct-May soybean+sbm exports are near a record 117.0 mmt vs 113,5 ly. USDA Oct-Sep goal is also a record 180.4 vs 175.1 last year. US soybean exports are near 51.4 mmt vs USDA goal of 62.0, Brazil soybean exports 51.8 vs USDA est of 86.0, US soymeal 8.5 vs 12.9, Argentina 17.6 vs 28.3 and Brazil 10.1 vs 16.5.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000, Corn; 25,000 Soybeans; and 22,000 lots of soyoil, and; bought 3,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net short 25,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 200,000 Corn; net long 43,000 Soybeans; net long 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 42,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 25 were: SRW Wheat down 5,878 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,671, Corn down 35,664, Soybeans down 40,671, Soymeal down 4,953, Soyoil down 5,228.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13. Soybeans; 718 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
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