Global Ag News for June 24

TODAY —- HOGS & PIGS REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are down 9 3/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans down 21 1/4; Soymeal down $0.37; Soyoil down 0.89.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 34 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 41 1/2; Soybeans down 34; Soymeal down $2.32; Soyoil up 2.64.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 1/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 67 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 21; Soybeans down 93 3/4; Soymeal down $37.60; Soyoil down 0.14.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 45 yuan ; Soymeal down 10; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil down 42; Corn up 5 — Malasyian Palm is down 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 26 ringgit (-0.75%) at 3419  after rising to its highest level in more than a week, with expectations of a production recovery in second-biggest grower Malaysia and weaker soybean oil prices hurting sentiment.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers around Iowa Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. East: Scattered showers northwest through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal southwest and near to above normal elsewhere Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

The player sheet had funds net buyers/sellers of X,000contracts of SRW Wheat; buyers/sellers of X,000 corn, buyers/sellers of X,000 soybeans, buyers/sellers of X,000 Soymeal, and; net buyers/sellers of X,000 lots of Soyoil.

The player sheet for 6/23 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 23 were: SRW Wheat down 9,609 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,202, Corn down 16,355, Soybeans up 7,055, Soymeal up 2,808, Soyoil down 3,815.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 768 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 55,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a daily reporting system that exporters sold 330,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2021/2022 delivery.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of red milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of wheat, with a bidding deadline of July 6

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.5% to 21.12M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 20.661 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.048m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.031m

Soybean Plantings in U.S. Seen Dropping by 1M Acres: FBN

A surge in U.S. corn prices earlier this year led some farmers to seed more of the grain, cutting expected soybean plantings by more than 1m acres, according to a survey by agri-tech firm Farmers Business Network.

• A U.S. Department of Agriculture report due June 30 may show farmers planted 86.5m acres of soybeans, down from its 87.6m forecast at the end of March, according to the survey taken June 7-20
  • FBN’s said it received responses from more than 2,000 U.S. farmers
• Corn plantings are seen rising to 92.9m from 91.1m
• Farmers opted to sow more corn as prices of the grain surged, Kevin McNew, FBN’s chief economist, said in an interview
• FBN’s survey predicts that spring wheat acres will be 11.9m acres vs the USDA’s forecast of 11.7m

 

Year-To-Date Western Canada Grain Rail Shipments Soar to Record

Western Canadian rail shipments of grain at record high for first 10 months of the 2020-21 crop year, while U.S.-bound deliveries dropped, a report showed Wednesday.

• Shipments to all destinations from Western Canadian elevators at record 54m metric tons by end of May, up 12% y/y, grain transportation monitoring company Quorum Corp. says in monthly report
  • Bulk grain shipments from Western Canadian ports at 38.5m tons in first 10 months of crop year that started in August 2020, up 20% y/y
  • May rail shipments better-than-average at 4.4m tons, down 23% m/m
• Wheat, durum and barley accounted for 58% of primary elevator shipments August-May
  • Canola at 23%, peas and lentils at 11%
• Total railway shipments to the U.S. more than 5.5m tons in first ten months, down 7.7% y/y, dominated by canola

Malaysia palm oil seen at 3,500-3,800 RGT in next three months -MPOC

Malaysia’s benchmark crude palm oil price FCPOc3 is estimated to remain between 3,500-3,800 ringgit a tonne in the next three months, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said on Thursday.

MPOC’s forecast is based expectations of marginally rising crude palm oil production, and a pick up in exports in July and August, MPOC CEO Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail told Reuters.

Palm Oil Prices to Drop Further as Output Climbs: Fitch Ratings

Benchmark crude palm oil prices in Malaysia may extend declines in the second half of 2021 as crop-friendly weather boosts production, according to Fitch Ratings.

• Spot prices will likely drop to around $600/ton by 4Q, from around $1,150/ton in May, Fitch said in a report Thursday
• “The recent drop in CPO prices is in line with the broader correction in edible oil prices, which is mainly driven by rising production due to favorable weather conditions,” Fitch said
• Prices may also be pressured by lower Indonesian export levies, which should encourage shipments from the top grower
• However, a shortage of foreign workers due to coronavirus-related restrictions has kept Malaysian output below normal
• Labor crunch may ease in the coming months as vaccinations progresses, but the slow yield recovery will crimp palm output and underpin prices

Top Palm Oil Growers Say EU Should Revise Biofuel Policy Rules

The European Union should revise the way it assesses the environmental risks of vegetable oils under its biofuel policy, so it does not discriminate against palm oil, the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries said.

• Palm oil has been singled out as damaging to the environment based on a study that used the period of 2008-2016 to identify risks of so-called indirect land-use change, or ILUC, it said in a statement
• “The use of ILUC as a policy tool has been fraught with methodological problems and biases from the beginning,” it said Thursday. “Therefore, a new approach, which treats all sustainable vegetable oils equally, based on verified production practices and not on the type of commodity, is urgently needed.”
• Framework for the bloc’s Renewable Energy Directive (II) is expected to be revised on July 14

SovEcon Lifts Russia Wheat, Ukraine Corn Crop Outlooks on Rains

Russia’s wheat harvest is now seen at 84.6m tons, up 2.2m tons from a previous estimate, the consultant says in an emailed report.

• Ample precipitation has boosted winter-wheat conditions, and yields in the south — the largest growing region — could be near a record
• Outlook for spring-wheat plantings has also increased
• Ukraine’s corn crop is estimated at 38.3m tons, up by 1.5m tons, due to high plantings and favorable conditions
• Ukraine wheat harvest estimate raised to 29.2m tons, up 0.3m tons

EU grain industry warns of import surge from green goals – EurActiv

European Union targets to reduce the environmental impact of farming could cut crop production sharply and turn the bloc into a net cereal importer, grain industry group Coceral said on Wednesday (23 June).

Under its “Farm to Fork” strategy set out last year, the European Commission proposed objectives for 2030 including expanding organic production to 25% of farmland from 8% currently, and cutting pesticide use by 50%.

The targets have been criticised as unrealistic by agricultural representatives, echoing divisions over environmental standards that have held up negotiations over the EU’s next multi-year farm subsidy programme.

The proposed green goals could lower EU production of common wheat, the EU’s main cereal crop, to around 109 million tonnes in 2030 from some 128 million expected this year, Coceral said, citing a mid-case scenario in its analysis.

Record wheat production expected in Argentina for the 2021/22 season – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2021/22 Argentina wheat production is set to rebound and hit a record 20.7 [17.8–23.7] million tons, up 17.2% from last season (when a late season drought dropped production to the lowest since 2015). In June’s WASDE (10 June) USDA placed Argentina wheat production at 20.5 million tons, unchanged from its last update in May. Much of the increase is attributed to higher expected yields (3.19 [2.81–3.56] tons per hectare), up significantly (+15.6% at the national level) on the year that they reached their lowest marks in seven years. Planted area is expected to increase as well by 1.4% year-on-year to 6.82 [6.63–7.0] million hectares this season, amid strong profitability and improved growing season weather prospects, despite some initial planting delays early in the season. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently see wheat planted area at 6.5 and 6.7 million hectares, respectively, largely in line with our median estimate.

Brazil’s second crop corn production down again as unfavorable late season conditions continue – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Unfavorable late season conditions and continued lack of moisture throughout key second crop corn areas in Mato Grosso and Goiás lower 2020/21 Brazil total corn production by 3% to 94.4 [87.5–99.7] million tons, now 2.1% and 4.2% below the latest (10 June) estimates from CONAB (96.4 million tons) and USDA (98.5 million tons), respectively. Total corn area is estimated at 19.0 million hectares, 0.87 million hectares below the current USDA’s World  Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) (or PS&D from FAS) figure (which also sees national-level yield at 4.96 tons per hectare vs. our current estimate of 4.97 tons per hectare). Our production estimate is placed slightly below the latest Reuters poll of analysts’ own estimates (05 June), which pegged total corn production at an average of 94.9 [88.0–104.1] million tons.

U.S. corn production down again as crop conditions deteriorate across the central Corn Belt – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Deteriorating crop condition scores throughout the central Corn Belt fractionally lower 2021/22 U.S. corn production to 15.1 [13.7–16.6] billion bushels, despite recent/expected beneficial rains and improving vegetation density levels early in the growing season. In June’s WASDE (10 June), USDA placed U.S. corn production at 380.76 million tons, unchanged from last update. Our current median estimate puts planted area at 94.26 million acres, 3.5% above the USDA’s June estimate of 91.1 million acres (from Crop Production report on 10 June). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (25 March) had analysts’ own estimates for corn area at 93.2 [92.0–94.5] million acres. The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in its June Acreage report, which is scheduled for 30 June.

Recent normal/wet conditions maintain Ukraine wheat production at high levels – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Recent and expected wet conditions, normal to cool temperatures and supportive satellite imagery maintain 2021/22 Ukraine wheat production at 29.0 [24.6-33.3] million tons.  Above average precipitation and normal temperatures were observed in the eastern and southern halves of Ukraine over the past two weeks. Soil moisture is well above normal across the major wheat producing areas. Weather forecasts call for continuation of wet weather pattern over the next 10 days, with relatively warm temperatures in the 1-5 days time frame and normal to cool temperatures during late June/early July.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 28% Above Normal as of June 23

India has so far received 145.8 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 114.2 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on June 23.

• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 58% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 8% above normal rains
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

Nigeria Flour Millers Squeezed by Central Bank Ban on Imports

• Wheat imports on official rate now in single digits from 100%
• Foreign exchange curbs add to pressure on rising food prices

Flour millers in Nigeria are turning to the street market for dollars to buy wheat after the central bank restricted the use of the U.S. currency to buy grain imports, according to the country’s third-largest operator.

“The central bank is deliberately looking at ways of managing the import bill and the deployment of dollar reserve,” said Honeywell Flour Mills Plc Managing Director Lanre Jaiyeola during an interview in Lagos. “This means we have to look elsewhere for the shortfall.”

Nigeria, Africa’s largest buyer of wheat, lacks the capacity to produce the commodity, harvesting just 1% of the 4.7 million tons of the grain that it will consume this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Most of the wheat is milled into flour for bakeries or used to produce pasta and other wheat-based foods like bread.

India to Spend $9.1 Billion on Free Rice and Wheat for the Poor

India’s cabinet approved Wednesday an earlier proposal to distribute 20.4 million tons of free rice and wheat to people covered under the nation’s food program for five months ending November, according to a government statement.

• Govt will spend 672.7 billion rupees ($9.1 billion) as subsidy for distribution of food grains to as many as 813.5 million people
• The beneficiaries will get 5kg of rice or wheat per person per month: statement
• NOTE: The free allocation is in addition to the sale of same amount of subsidized food grain each month

China May Play Smaller Role in Fertilizer Exports: CF Industries

China won’t likely be as big a fertilizer supplier in 2021 compared to prior years, according to Bert Frost of CF Industries Holdings.

• “I don’t think China’s going to be the player that they have been in the past in the export market,” Frost says Wednesday at conference hosted by BofA
• Market speculation of Chinese fertilizer exports being limited are probably true, says Frost, who’s senior vice president of sales and market development at CF Industries
• “I can tell you from real-world photographs that we have and intel, the product is not moving to the ports,” he says
• In the past there would’ve been hundreds of thousands of tons stored and ready for export, he says

Mexico Says It Delisted Smithfield, Rava Sites on Rotten Food

Mexico delisted sites of Smithfield Foods Inc. and Rava Forwarding, Inc., ending their permission to import into the country, after detecting shipments of rotten food at the border, food safety agency Senasica said.

• The sites were delisted after Mexico detected their refrigerated pork skins were rotten on three occasions: April 15, June 9, and June 11, said Senasica in a written response to questions from Bloomberg News
  • On two occasions, Mexico also detected fungus in the product: Senasica

EU States Set to Allow Insect Protein for Poultry and Pig Feed

• Bloc’s Parliament and Council are now examining the measure
• Move would also allow some animal proteins to be used as feed

The European Union is set to allow insect-derived protein to be fed to poultry and pigs, in what could be a significant boost for the nascent industry.

The bloc’s member states have endorsed the proposal, a spokesperson for the European Commission confirmed. The EU Parliament and Council, which is made up of EU governments, are now examining the measure and are expected to complete their work in early August.

Insects are emerging as a more sustainable source of protein thanks to their lower environmental impact and high nutritional value, attracting attention from giants such as Cargill Inc. and Nestle SA. Researcher Arcluster Pte. predicts insect farming to grow tenfold, exceeding $4.1 billion globally, by 2025.

The lion’s share of demand will come from farming, though as much as 10% of Europe’s output could go to human food, according to the International Platform of Insects for Food and Feed.

The changes will also allow some processed-animal proteins to be fed to poultry and pigs, according to the Commission. It’s a partial reversal of a 2001 ban brought in amid fears of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE, a disease that caused more than 175 deaths in the U.K. after spreading from beef to humans.

The overturning of the ban was first reported by the Guardian newspaper.

There are no safety concerns around loosening the rules, the spokesperson said, citing the advice of the EU’s food watchdog. The ban on feeding livestock members of their own species, as well as feeding animal protein to cows and sheep, will remain in place.