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Global Ag News Headlines - Grains Mixed Trade 3/15

Commentary by ADMIS Research Team

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 1 cent in the SRW Wheat, down 2 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil down 10 points. 

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 12 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 3 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 5 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 6 cents; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil down 15 points (crushing margins are up 1 cent at $0.97, oil-share is unchanged at 32%). 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 28 yuan in Soybeans, up 9 in Corn, up 12 in Soymeal, down 66 in Soyoil, and down 48 in Palm Oil. 

The Chinese stock market closed higher on Friday after Premier Li Keqiang vowed strong measures to boost slowing economic growth. China will not let economic growth slip out of a reasonable range amid downward pressure on its economy, Li said on Friday at a press conference marking the end of the annual meeting of the National People's Congress. But signs of economic stress kept the stock market's gains in check. Li's remarks came after China reported its slowest monthly industrial output growth in 17 years, and jobless rates rose month-on-month. 

China's pig herd slid 16.6 percent in February from the previous year, as African swine fever ravaged its vast herd, data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed; China's sow herd dropped 19.1 percent in February from the same month a year earlier; the pig herd was down 5.4 percent and the sow herd 5 percent last month from January. 

China made its biggest purchases of U.S. pork in nearly two years last week, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed on Thursday, as Chinese hog prices surged after an outbreak of a deadly swine disease; buyers in the world's biggest hog producer and pork consumer struck deals for the meat despite import tariffs of 62 percent imposed by China on U.S. pork. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 3 ringgit at 2,066 (basis May) reversing earlier losses of roughly 25 ringgit on some better export demand projections from one of the private surveyors for the March 1-15 period. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no significant changes to the two-week outlook as a welcome period of drier weather will follow a current storm system; many areas will be seeing at least some light precipitation next week with no major storm systems expected. 

The U.S. Delta/Southeast weather forecast has a welcome stretch of much drier weather to follow; no additional storm systems of significance are currently seen through next week. 

Brazil’s weather forecast call for regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms continuing through the middle of next week in much of Brazil. 

Argentina’s weather forecast is a little wetter overall as much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture. 

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 177 lots; Soyoil 13; Rice 3; Corn 222; HRW Wheat ZERO; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 147; SRW Wheat 23, and; HRS Wheat ZERO. 

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; net sold 3,000 contracts of Soybeans; bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net sold 3,000 Soyoil. 

We estimate Managed Money net short 75,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 180,000 Corn; net short 81,000 contracts of Soybeans; short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 14,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 155; Corn up 5,300; Soybeans down 860 contracts; Soymeal down 5,400 lots, and; Soyoil down 855 lots. 

There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 4 contracts; Corn down 126; Soybeans down 78)---Registrations total 176 contracts for SRW Wheat; 13 Oats; Corn 1,958; Soybeans 1,421; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 342; Rice 172; HRW Wheat 14, and; HRS Wheat 938 contracts. 


In tender activity---Turkey bought 290,000t optional-origin wheat---S. Korea bought 33,700t U.S. wheat, 30,800t Australian wheat--- 

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that whether a trade deal can be reached with China would probably be known in the next three or four weeks, adding that Beijing has been very responsible and very reasonable. 

For the week ended March 7th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 3% ahead of a year ago, shipments 4% behind with the USDA forecasting a 7% increase on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 6% behind a year ago, shipments 34% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 3% decrease on the year. U.S. Soybean sales are running 16% behind a year ago, shipments 31% behind with the USDA forecasting a 12% decline on the year

---Soymeal sales 8% ahead of a year ago, shipments 5% ahead with a 2% decline forecasted

---Soyoil sales 8% behind a year ago, shipments 1% ahead with an 8% decline forecasted 

The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday

---NOPA members likely crushed 158.730 million bushels of soybeans in February

---ranged from 154.700 million to 164.271 million bushels

---down from January’s 171.630 million bushels 

---Soyoil supplies the end of February were projected at 1.612 billion pounds

---estimates ranged from 1.499 billion to 1.680 billion lbs

---1.549 billion pounds at the end of January 

United States ethanol exporters are likely to face increased competition in one of the few foreign markets where they have been able to deliver large volumes in recent years, the North and Northeast regions of Brazil; ironically, that competition would come in the form of corn-based ethanol common in the United States, not sugar-based ethanol that has traditionally dominated in Brazil; corn ethanol is taking off in Brazil's grain heartland of Mato Grosso state, where production is expected to grow more than 50 percent in 2019 from a year earlier; but one major obstacle for that to happen is logistics. 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has granted five of the seven outstanding small refinery hardship waivers requested for the 2017 compliance year under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard bringing the year's total approvals to 37. 

Selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Canada

---FAS/Canada predicts increased canola area planted in marketing year 2019/20, despite increased volatility and uncertainty in global oilseed trade and ongoing agronomic concerns 

Brazil's food supply and statistics agency Conab may sell as much as half a million tons of public stocks of corn stored in Mato Grosso after prices spiked in the internal market catching hog producers off guard. 

Argentina's soybean harvest will likely be 54 million tons in the 2018/19 season, an increase from the previous estimate of 52 million tons (USDA at 55.0 mt), the Rosario grains exchange said; the exchange also increased its projected corn harvest estimate to 47.3 million tons from 46.5 million tons (USDA at 46.0 mt)

---bean crop seen 51% good to excellent versus 52% last week and 3% a year ago

---corn crop 56% good to excellent versus 55% last week and 8% a year ago 

Ukraine’s Ag Minister said 87% of the winter grain crop was in good to satisfactory condition.

Ukraine’s Ag Min said 91% of the winter rapeseed crop was in good and satisfactory condition. 

Strategie Grains left its forecast for European cereal production unchanged, still expecting an 11% on-year increase in the 2019-20 season; expects total production of 311 million tons compared with the 279 million tons expected for the current season--a significant expansion

---forecasts corn production of 63 million tons, up 3% from the 61.2 million tons expected for this season

---an 11% increase in barley to 61.8 million tons from 55.7 million tons

---biggest rise will be seen in soft wheat production which will rise 15% to 146.1 million tons from 127 million tons

---durum-wheat production will fall 8% to 7.9 million tons from 8.6 million tons 

Farm office FranceAgriMer estimated in a weekly report that 85 percent (pct) of French soft wheat was in good/excellent condition by March 11 against 86 pct a week earlier; this compares with an 80 pct good/excellent rating for soft wheat at the same point last year 

Iraq expects its wheat crop to almost double to 4 million tons this year after more rainfall encouraged farmers to grow the grain, its agriculture ministry said; the country produced around 2.17 million tons of wheat in 2018 and had expected to grow 3 million tons in 2019; but better rainfall provided more fertile land to grow the crop outside of the areas originally planned. 

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Mar. 1-15 rose 3.5 percent to 697,483 tonnes from 674,129 tons shipped during Feb. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said

---Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1 - 15 fell 5.2 percent to 651,319 tons from 686,657 tons shipped during February 1 - 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said

---Malaysia's palm-oil exports during the March 1-15 period are estimated to have fallen 1.35% from the previous month at 676,553 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said