February 19, 2019 | Global Ag News Highlights
USDA Agency Reports
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Grain calls are mixed. SK is unchanged and near 9.21. CK is unchanged and near 3.83. WK is down 3 cents and near 5.03. Could be big grain data week this week with USDA Ag Outlook Conference and more US and China trade talks. President Trump tweeted after last week’s meetings big progress was being made.
Talks now resume on Tuesday in the US. Some hope that the two sides may agree to sign documents for a deal in areas of agreement. Most feel this could include a deal for US Ag goods. There is hope that if such a document is signed that it will be announced which US goods China will buy annually. Mush of the grain trade has been on hold waiting for some solid news on a US and China trade deal.
Thursday and Friday USDA will have their Annual Outlook Conference. They will issue their first estimate of US 2019/20 Supply and Demand by crop. Most will look for higher US 2019 corn planted acres and lower soybean and wheat. Then market will look at US export demand. Finally trade will look at USDA forecast of 2019/20 end stocks and implied stocks to use ratio. This could begin the debate on 2019 price outlook.
Look for another week and cold and wet US Midwest weather. This could continue to slow cash movement and grain transportation. On Friday, USDA will catch up with US export sales data.
Brazil’s weather forecast calls for rains that fell across most of the growing areas over the weekend to continue both in the next 5 and 6 to 10 day period. Argentina’s weather forecast remains dry from the weekend continuing through most of the week when a front is now seen arriving and bringing rains to most of the growing areas by the coming weekend.
Funds were net buyers of 3,000 soybeans, 1,000 soyoil and 2,000 soymeal and sold 5,000 corn and 5,000 wheat on Friday. We estimate managed funds are net short 13,000 soybeans, short 28,000 soyoil, short 4,000 soymeal, short 1,000 corn and short 20,000 wheat. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. Past results are not indicative of future results or performance. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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