December 10, 2018 | Global Ag News Highlights
USDA Agency Reports
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Grains are lower. SF is down 5 cents and near 9.11. CH is down 1 cent and near 3.84. WH is down 4 cents and near 5.27. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Trade will be watching US cash basis levels for any sign of China interest or suggesting a trade deal could be soon. USDA monthly crop report is Tuesday.
For the week ended November 29th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 11% behind a year ago, shipments 16% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% increase on the year .U.S. Corn sales are running 17% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 83% with the USDA forecasting a 1% increase on the year U.S. Soybean sales are running 33% behind a year ago, shipments 43% behind with the USDA forecasting an 11% decline on the year. Soymeal sales 18% ahead of a year ago, shipments 16% ahead with a 7% decline forecasted. Soyoil sales 49% ahead of a year ago, shipments 18% ahead with a 10% decline forecasted
CBOT March corn failed to break a resistance at $3.85 per bushel. A break above $3.85 will not be confirmed until corn rises above the Dec. 7 high of $3.85-3/4, while a break below $3.81 may cause a loss to $3.76.
CBOT soybean January contract looks neutral in a range of $9.05-1/2 to $9.17 per bushel, and an escape could suggest a direction. A break below $9.05-1/2 could confirm the progress towards $8.91-3/4, while a break above $9.17 could signal the continuation of the uptrend towards the range of $9.26-1/2 to $9.34-1/2. The longer the contract hovers below $9.16-3/4, the more likely it will fall towards $8.82
CBOT March wheat WH8 may stabilize around a support at $5.24-3/4 per bushel, and then retest a resistance at $5.32-1/2. A rising trendline suggests a higher target zone of $5.40-1/2 to $5.46-1/2, which may be reached due to the current strong bullish momentum. Support is near 5.20. Wheat chart pattern is similar to GSCI Index which is following Crude.
Brazil’s weather forecast has some rains to fall in the north this week with things mainly dry elsewhere. By the weekend and first half of next week. Fairly soaking rains look to fall in the southern growing regions. Tropical activity quiets down some in the north.
Argentina’s weather forecast has a front bringing rains to most areas Tuesday-Wednesday with more rains seen later Thursday into Friday. Things quiet back down for the weekend and the first half of next week.
CFTC commit of traders report is today. Funds bought 5,000 soybeans, 9,000 corn and 10,000 wheat and sold 2,000 soymeal on Friday. Funds are est to be net short 36,000 soybeans, 71,000 soyoil, short 5,000 soymeal, long 36,000 corn and short 19,000 wheat.
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