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June 25, 2019 | Global Ag News Highlights

USDA Agency Reports

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Grains are higher.  SU is up 6 cents and near 9.26. CU is up 5 cents and near 4.57. WU is up 6 cents and near 5.48. Crude oil is lower. US Dollar is higher.  

Chicago corn futures rose for a second session on Tuesday after the USDA said the crop's condition deteriorated last week following wet weather, stoking fears of supply disruptions. Wheat prices gained more ground, climbing to their highest in a week following adverse weather in top exporting countries around the world. USDA said 56% of the corn crop is in good-to-excellent condition, down from 59% reported the week before and behind market expectations. The USDA said 85% of the soybean crop has been planted, slightly behind market forecasts, while 54% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, behind market expectations. 

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a phone conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, China's Ministry of Commerce said; the Chinese and U.S. officials exchanged opinions on trade and agreed to maintain communications. 

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 6% ahead of a year ago (1% ahead a week ago) with the USDA currently forecasting a 5% decline on the year, Corn 6% behind (4% behind a week ago) with the USDA down 10% for the season and Soybeans 26% behind (26% behind last week) with the USDA having a 20% decline forecasted on the year 

U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 15% (trade estimate was 19%) versus 8% last week, 39% a year ago, 34% average. The U.S. Winter Wheat crop was rated 61% good to excellent (trade estimate was 63%) versus 64% a week ago and 37% a year ago. 

U.S. Spring Wheat was rated  75% good to excellent (trade estimate was 77%) versus 77% last week, 77% a year ago 

U.S. Corn plantings 96% complete (trade estimate was 96%) versus 92% a week ago, 100% a year ago, 100% average. Corn was rated 56% good to excellent (trade estimate was 59%) versus 59% last week, 77% a year ago.

U.S. Soybeans planted totaled 85% (trade estimate was 88%) versus 77% a week ago, 100% last year, and 97% average. Soybeans rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 59%) versus N/A a week ago, 73% a year ago. 

Wire story reported too much rain and unfavorably cool temperatures were last week’s themes for all eight U.S. Crop Watch growers, who see their corn and soybean yields falling short of last year’s levels. Luckily, a warmer and drier pattern is in the forecast for the next week or two, which should promote crop development and allow saturated fields to drain. This week, the producers gave their initial assessment of yield potential on their corn and soybean crops on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 being well below farm average, 3 representing near farm average, and 5 being well above. The eight-field average for corn yield was 3.13. Average yield potential for soybeans is seen a little higher at 3.25. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast will see things quiet down significantly over the next 10 days at least with smaller areas of rainfall working through the region from time to time. 

The Southern U.S. Plains will see hit and miss rainfall activity for the region from time to time favoring more of the east. The Northern U.S. Plains looks to have close to average precip over the next 10 days. 

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states into Saturday will be mostly dry before rain increases Sunday through the following Sunday. The Delta through western Georgia will be wettest. Rain will be lighter elsewhere but enough rain should fall to maintain soil moisture in much of the region. 

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook still has ridging sliding to the west leading to a weak northwest flow to dominate the Midwest. This will lead to average to below average temps and below average precip to the Midwes. The Plains would be seeing below average precip and average to above average temps. 

On Monday, the player sheet had funds net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 8,000 Corn; bought 8,000 contracts of Soybeans; bought 3,000 Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.  We estimate Managed Money net long 26,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 124,000 Corn; net short 56,000 contracts of Soybeans; net even in Soymeal, and; net short 40,000 Soyoil.    

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